The value of goods exported from and imported into the UK will decline by 3.2% and 0.8% in real terms in 2023, research from business insurer QBE has found, with exports failing to fully recover before 2026, reflecting the slowdown in world and UK growth.
According to a new report from QBE, Global Commerce: UK Forecast for International Trade, it is expected the annual growth in goods exports will recover to 1.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Conversely, the recovery in the annual growth in imports of goods is forecast to be more rapid, reaching 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively.
Chris Wallace, Executive Director, QBE UK, said: “The coming years are likely to see governments across Europe and beyond looking to ensure access to critical goods. Some businesses will benefit from shorter supply chains, but few are likely to be able to insulate themselves from the impact of global events on trade flows.”
Moving forward, UK businesses engaged in international trade should keep an eye on evolving post-Brexit rules and relations, which are likely to continue to evolve in coming years. They will also need to be prepared for the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions and the continuation of recent trends around nearshoring and onshoring.
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